Here's how it goes: David Archuleta will win American Idol VII, but it's David Cook's album I'll be buying and whose concert I'll attend. Both singers are wildly talented, but it comes down to musical taste — does America want a pop star or a rock star? Is tonight's result a Clay Aiken or a Chris Daughtry makeup call? The horrendous boxing theme aside, this was the best finale to date. Here's the order of how the two finalists performed last night, with the odds of winning it all tonight:
1. David Archuleta
You have to admit this kid is a phenomenal singer. Vocally, he's nearly flawless with each performance. "Don't Let the Sun Go Down on Me," which, by the way, may have been Aiken's best performance in Season 2, was a great song choice and shows even more range than we've previously seen. Closing with "Imagine" was smart. Really shows he wants this. Clearly well-prepared and delivers with precision and passion. It's amazing he's just 17.
Odds of winning: 2-1
2. David Cook
Would like him to win, but realistically can't see it happening. Judges gushing over Archuleta won't help in the voting. Terrific performances with U2 and Collective Soul covers, and makes a brand new song ("Dream Day") interesting. Would have a better chance if he had picked something more familar for his closer, but like he said, this is about "progressing." Like Daughtry, Cook will sell a lot of records and make an impact on today's rock scene.
Odds of winning: 5-1
Does America want a pop star, a rock star or a soul singer as its next American Idol? Here's the order of how the three finalists performed last night, with the odds of winning it all next week:
1. David Cook
Spine-tingling version of "The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face" is the song of the night and vaults him into the final. Diverse talent who continually takes risks and delivers. Switchfoot track is just OK but he finishes strong with Aerosmith ballad. The one to beat. Would be nice to see a real rocker win Idol.
Odds of winning: 3-1
2. David Archuleta
Flawless effort with Billy Joel and Dan Fogelberg covers, although accompanying vocals dilute purity of "Longer." Hated the Chris Brown version as it's just not his thing. Licking his lips and closing his eyes gets a little annoying. Does dad notice this? David vs. David makes for the most compelling final since Bo vs. Carrie.
Odds of winning: 4-1
3. Syesha Mercado (bye, bye)
Typical song choice that confirms we've seen this before. Alicia Keys, Rhianna and yet another cover of "Fever" do nothing to show her originality. I do think she's the best performer of the three and the most polished, but she's typical of past Idol stars. Looks great and sounds great, but she's in the wrong season.
Odds of winning: 10-1
With all of the money that American Idol brings in, can someone splurge and get Syesha a tissue? Here's the order of how the four finalists performed last night, with the odds of winning it all in two weeks:
1. David Archuleta
Mr. Consistent is the only one to sing two flawless performances with "Stand By Me" and "Love Me Tender," the latter of which is one of his trademark emotional deliveries. The likable little teddy bear sails through and starts prepping for a showdown with Mr. Cook.
Odds of winning: 3-1
2. David Cook
OK. So the grunge version of Duran Duran's "Hungry Like the Wolf" isn't the best song choice but his haunting version of "Baba O'Riley" re-establishes him as the One to Beat. Nice to see the Who get some Idol play. Bar was high given the theme, but popular rocker delivers.
Odds of winning: 2-1
3. Syesha Mercado
Between the tears and Castro's Catastrophe, she finds herself in the Top 3. "Proud Mary" is a bit gimmicky (nice legs, though) but "A Change is Gonna Come" has a show-stopping, spine-tingling finish. Comparing AI to the Civil Rights Movement is an odd comment.
Odds of winning: 20-1
4. Jason Castro (bye, bye)
He sticks around one week too long and embarrasses himself in front of millions. Forgetting an entire verse of "Mr. Tambourine Man" is unforgivable. Esoteric arrangement of "I Shot the Sheriff" doesn't work. Painful to watch. Where's Chuck Barris' gong?
Odds of winning: 75-1
So Jason Castro sings once and Paula judges him for two songs. Better check that glass of Coca-Cola. Here's the order of how the five finalists performed last night, with the odds of winning it all in three weeks:
1. David Cook
Grinds out mean guitar version of "I'm Alive" and settles into an '80s-style rock ballad with "All I Really Need." Looking more like the American Idol with each performance as he establishes an image of professional unpredictably. Front-runner.
Odds of winning: 3-1
2. Syesha Mercado
New hairstyle and softer personality. Would have had her first as she delivers best performance of the night with "Hello Again," but loses points for throw-away gospel brunch version of "Thank the Lord for the Night Time." Should get through but there are no givens.
Odds of winning: 15-1
3. David Archuleta
The problem here is that he has been terrific since Day One. Unlike the others, there's little, if any, room for improvement. Visible growth draws votes. Delivers campy version of "Sweet Caroline" and superb patriotic arrangement of "America." Gearing up for a David-David final.
Odds of winning: 3-1
4. Jason Castro
At this stage, singers need to deliver "wow" moments. Does not have the ability to do anything exceptional. Sings cool, low-key versions of "Forever in Blue Jeans" and "September Morn." Teeny-bopper votes continue to roll in but he's no match for the front-runners.
Odds of winning: 25-1
5. Brooke White (bye, bye)
Night and day performances. Sings "I'm a Believer" karaoke-style but turns it around with passionate piano version of "I Am ... I Said." Admits to writing lyrics on her hand. Sweet voice but she must be pinching herself with the introspective question: "I'm actually still singing in this competition?"
Odds of winning: 35-1
This is where it gets tough. America prunes the best of the best. Here's the order of how the six finalists performed last night, with the odds of winning it all next month:
1. Syesha Mercado
Drop her onto the set of "Dreamgirls" and no one would question her presence. Seemingly down and out the last few weeks, the vocal powerhouse gives her regards to Broadway and takes top honors. Sexy, animated and back for another week.
Odds of winning: 20-1
2. Carly Smithson
Chooses the best song of the night with "Superstar," making Murray Head proud. Delivers rich, powerful vocal with a difficult arrangement. The background singers' timing adds to level of complexity. Loved the "Hair"-inspired dress. Still in the game.
Odds of winning: 20-1
3. David Cook
Delivers dark, brooding, heartfelt version of "The Music of the Night." Very weird to hear the resident rocker singing a classic Broadway staple. Always brings a unique approach to the stage, which is why he'll be singing well into May.
Odds of winning: 8-1
4. David Archuleta
Are we getting too used to perfection? This genre is in his wheelhouse, but he's raised the bar so high we expect goosebumps with every performance. The schoolgirl hugs at the beginning don't help his bubblegum image.
Odds of winning: 8-1
5. Jason Castro
Didn't quite get this one. After a few great weeks, this is kind of lame. Hits the high notes very well, but plods and mumbles with the lower notes. "Memory" is one of those songs that needs a big voice. It's not here. Quick thought: No more interviews.
Odds of winning: 25-1
6. Brooke White (bye, bye)
And the road ends here. Despite the start and stop (this was the second time she did this), the song was just OK. The misstep creates heavy tension for the audience ("will she forget the words again?") and herself. Great kid who had a terrific run.
Odds of winning: 35-1
Has there ever been a more least-anticipated theme than this one? The Mariah Carey library is like one continous bad song. Here's the order of how the seven finalists performed last night, with the odds of winning it all next month:
1. Brooke White
Smart move to go the singer-songwriter route, which is her forte. The farthest you can stay away from the original arrangement the better. Goes back to the piano where she had her biggest triumph with "Let It Be" and gives "Hero" a fresh face.
Odds of winning: 25-1
2. Jason Castro
To quote Randy, this is like a beach luau, but it works. This is two good weeks in a row for Mr. Dreads. Nice, mellow vocal on "I Don't Want to Cry" continues to draw fan support. Sails through another week. Safe for now.
Odds of winning: 25-1
3. David Cook
Hillary moment at the end draws votes (his brother, who is battling cancer, was in the audience). This is a pretty good singer and he's humble and sincere. Does the best he can with the theme and song ("Always Be My Baby"). Has charisma.
Odds of winning: 10-1
4. David Archuleta
The last two singers who have gone first were eliminated (Ramiele Malubay, Michael Johns). That's not the case here. Another melodic effort ("When You Believe") from the front-runner. Nice shifting through octaves. Smooth and consistent.
Odds of winning: 8-1
5. Carly Smithson (bottom 3)
Holds back the anger and shows restraint through the opening verse. Great set of lungs but doesn't always have control and can seem a little over the top. Best song choice of the night ("Without You"), written by Badfinger and made popular by Harry Nilsson.
Odds of winning: 25-1
6. Syesha Mercado (bye, bye)
She's like a triple espresso on top of a cappuccino. Too much. Great voice, but we've seen this before. In a season packed with original contestants, she has trouble standing out. Does OK with "Vanishing," and it's an appropriate choice.
Odds of winning: 30-1
7. Kristy Lee Cook (bottom 3)
Struggles with the softer verses but makes up for it with the chorus ("One and Only"). Looking better each week and is probably the biggest comeback story, surviving multiple weeks in the Bottom 3. The end is near.
Odds of winning: 30-1
Here's a hunch for how Season 7 of American Idol goes down:
David Archuletta and David Cook will square off in the final.
America is ready to provide one of these talented singers with a make-up call for picking the wrong idols in Season 2 and Season 5.
Archuletta is clearly the purest singer of the finalists, much like Clay Aiken was in Season 2. Despite his enormous talent, Aiken somehow lost out to Ruben Studdard. While Studdard drew comparisons to Luther Vandross, Aiken was an original.
Cook may not be the most talented singer in the current group, but he's a rocker and he's original. Somehow, America chose Taylor Hicks over Daughtry in Season 5 (Daughtry was fourth overall), which, in hindsight, was a huge error.
Season 7 provides the makeup call.
Just a hunch.
Crazy week. These kids are all very good. Now it's a personal choice and it comes down to who you like. Here's the order of how the eight finalists performed last night, with the odds of winning it all next month:
1. Jason Castro
Based on performance, the dreadman is flawless and deserves the top spot. Ukelele version of "Somewhere Over the Rainbow" is a risk, but he comes through with a Tiny Tim-like innocence. Charming and memorable.
Odds of winning: 40-1
2. David Archuleta
Sometimes forget that he's 17. Continues to impress with poise and professionalism. Understated velvet voice is unique. Tackles Robbie Williams' "Angel" with terrific performance that includes several nice runs at the end.
Odds of winning: 8-1
3. Kristy Lee Cook
Is she coming on strong at the end? Perhaps. Problem is that she has trouble inspiring people to remember her. Hits some big and soft notes equally well with Martina McBride's "Anyway." Looks like a young Melissa Etheridge.
Odds of winning: 25-1
4. Michael Johns
Once again, he steps into some big shoes and makes an impression. Steven Tyler's "Dream On" is tough to cover without sounding over the top, but the Aussie comes through with a spirited effort. Even had the bandana. Nice job.
Odds of winning: 25-1
5. Syesha Mercado (bye, bye)
Rule No. 1: Don't cover an Idol original song. Rule No. 2: Don't cover Fantasia. While this girl is clearly talented, her approach and style is old and played. It's booooooooring. Over the top. Here's a radical thought: She's outta here.
Odds of winning: 40-1
6. Carly Smithson (bottom 3)
Odd song choice, going with a deep Queen cut ("The Show Must Go On"), but she does OK. Difficult thing with a song like this is that most people won't recognize it, affecting the vote. Hits some big notes but sounds forced. Puzzling.
Odds of winning: 20-1
7. Brooke White (bottom 3)
Not one of her better performances and she could be in trouble. Kind of labors through "You've Got a Friend" and has some pitch problems. Timing is off and she looks a little tired. Sweet kid but lacking consistency.
Odds of winning: 35-1
8. David Cook
The backup singers overwhelmed him. Neat to see Our Lady of Peace get some play with "Innocent," but this doesn't work. His vocals, which can be suspect at times, were off. Nice touch with the "Give it Back" on his hand at the end.
Odds of winning: 15-1
Thankfully no one sang "9 to 5." Dolly Parton is a sweet person, but is she relevant? Here's the order of how the nine finalists performed last night, with the odds of winning it all next month:
1. Syesha Mercado
Tackled a monumental Whitney vocal ("I Will Always Love You") and nailed it. Not easy to do. Loved the mellow, controlled first half of the song and when she opened it up, her pitch and power were nearly flawless. Judges got it wrong.
Odds of winning: 15-1
2. Carly Smithson
Finally, the Irish crooner relaxed and we got to hear her pure voice without the angst from recent weeks. She's been doing well, but last night was perhaps her best vocal. "Here You Come Again" was appropriate. Nice job.
Odds of winning: 15-1
3. David Archuleta
Love him or hate him, this kid is a force. Took on some tough lyrics ("Appalachian Memories") and gave a heartfelt, powerful performance. Complex ending adds to his credibility. Still reminds me of a more polished Jackson Browne.
Odds of winning: 8-1
4. Michael Johns
Makes his mark with nice bluesy approach to "It's All Wrong, But It's All Right." Kind of sounded like Taylor Hicks. Goes all out and put his voice on the line. Still think he's outclassed here, but this was one of his better efforts.
Odds of winning: 25-1
5. Kristy Lee Cook
She should just go out and make a country album. Has the perfect voice for this genre. Thought she started a little slow and shaky with "Coat of Many Colors," but did OK. It could have been better, but maybe it's just not in her. Looked like a peacock.
Odds of winning: 25-1
6. David Cook
Was curious how he would handle this assignment. Very straightforward and missed a few notes on "Little Sparrow." Showed he has the ability to sing different genres. Pretty good vocal but nothing memorable. Fan base is growing.
Odds of winning: 10-1
7. Brooke White (bottom 3)
Thought she played it safe with "Jolene" like she just wanted to get through the week. It's tough to open the show, because voters forget about you. She needs to chill out with the judges. Too much banter lately. Complimenting Paula and Simon's hair? Gag.
Odds of winning: 25-1
8. Jason Castro (bottom 3)
Put more emotion than usual into his vocal on "Travelin' Through," but his voice just doesn't compare to the best of these. Thought it was safe, droning and dull. Randy had the best falsetto when he said "It was pretty good" in his comments. The end is near.
Odds of winning: 50-1
9. Ramiele Malubay (bye, bye)
This was a song that would inspire a bathroom break at a House of Blues gospel brunch. The background singers were more distinct. There were a few hot notes, but this was mostly uninspiring. Very forgettable.
Odds of winning: 50-1